Heavy rainfall in Paraguay during the 2015/16 austral summer: causes and subseasonal-to-seasonal predictive skill

During the austral summer 2015/16, severe flooding displaced over 170 000 people on the Paraguay River system in Paraguay, Argentina, and southern Brazil. These floods were driven by repeated heavy rainfall events in the lower Paraguay River basin. Alternating sequences of enhanced moisture inflow from the South American low-level jet and local convergence associated with baroclinic systems were conducive to mesoscale convective activity and enhanced precipitation. These circulation patterns were favored by cross-time-scale interactions of a very strong El Niño event, an unusually persistent Madden–Julian oscillation in phases 4 and 5, and the presence of a dipole SST anomaly in the central southern Atlantic Ocean. The simultaneous use of seasonal and subseasonal heavy rainfall predictions could have provided decision-makers with useful information about the start of these flooding events from two to four weeks in advance. Probabilistic seasonal forecasts available at the beginning of November successfully indicated heightened probability of heavy rainfall (90th percentile) over southern Paraguay and Brazil for December–February. Raw subseasonal forecasts of heavy rainfall exhibited limited skill at lead times beyond the first two predicted weeks, but a model output statistics approach involving principal component regression substantially improved the spatial distribution of skill for week 3 relative to other methods tested, including extended logistic regressions. A continuous monitoring of climate drivers impacting rainfall in the region, and the use of statistically corrected heavy precipitation seasonal and subseasonal forecasts, may help improve flood preparedness in this and other regions

Occupational choice, number of entrepreneurs and output: theory and empirical evidence with Spanish data

This paper extends the (Lucas, Bell J Econ 9:508–523,1978) model of occupational choices by individuals with different skills, beyond the simple options of self-employment or wage-employment, by including a second choice for the self-employed. That is, an option to hire employees and so become self-employed with employees (SEWEs), or to be self-employed without employees (SEWNEs). We solve for the market equilibrium and examine the sensitivity of relative sizes of occupational groups, and of the level of productivity, to changes in the exogenous parameters. The results show that the positive (negative) association between number of SEWEs (SEWNEs) and productivity, observed in the Spanish data, can be explained, under certain conditions, as the result of cross-region and time differences in average skills. These findings point to the importance of distinguishing between SEWEs and SEWNEs in drawing valid conclusions concerning any link between entrepreneurship and economic development

The Surgical Infection Society revised guidelines on the management of intra-abdominal infection

Background: Previous evidence-based guidelines on the management of intra-abdominal infection (IAI) were published by the Surgical Infection Society (SIS) in 1992, 2002, and 2010. At the time the most recent guideline was released, the plan was to update the guideline every five years to ensure the timeliness and appropriateness of the recommendations. Methods: Based on the previous guidelines, the task force outlined a number of topics related to the treatment of patients with IAI and then developed key questions on these various topics. All questions were approached using general and specific literature searches, focusing on articles and other information published since 2008. These publications and additional materials published before 2008 were reviewed by the task force as a whole or by individual subgroups as to relevance to individual questions. Recommendations were developed by a process of iterative consensus, with all task force members voting to accept or reject each recommendation. Grading was based on the GRADE (Grades of Recommendation Assessment, Development, and Evaluation) system; the quality of the evidence was graded as high, moderate, or weak, and the strength of the recommendation was graded as strong or weak. Review of the document was performed by members of the SIS who were not on the task force. After responses were made to all critiques, the document was approved as an official guideline of the SIS by the Executive Council. Results: This guideline summarizes the current recommendations developed by the task force on the treatment of patients who have IAI. Evidence-based recommendations have been made regarding risk assessment in individual patients; source control; the timing, selection, and duration of antimicrobial therapy; and suggested approaches to patients who fail initial therapy. Additional recommendations related to the treatment of pediatric patients with IAI have been included. Summary: The current recommendations of the SIS regarding the treatment of patients with IAI are provided in this guideline

A Search for Charmless B→VVB\to VV Decays

We have studied two-body charmless decays of the $B$ meson into the final states $\rho^0 \rho^0$, $K^{*0} \rho^0$, $K^{*0} K^{*0}$, $K^{*0} \bar{K^{*0}}$, $K^{*+} \rho^0$, $K^{*+} \bar{K^{*0}}$, and $K^{*+} K^{*-}$ using only decay modes with charged daughter particles. Using 9.7 million $B \bar{B}$ pairs collected with the CLEO detector, we place 90% confidence level upper limits on the branching fractions, $(0.46-7.0)\times 10^{-5}$, depending on final state and polarization.Comment: 8 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLN

Correlated /\c-/\cbar production in e+e- annihilations at sqrt{s}~10.5 GeV

Using 13.6/fb of continuum two-jet e+e- -> ccbar events collected with the CLEO detector, we have searched for baryon number correlations at the primary quark level. We have measured the likelihood for a /\c+ charmed baryon to be produced in the hemisphere opposite a /\c- relative to the likelihood for a /\c+ charmed baryon to be produced opposite an anticharmed meson Dbar; in all cases, the reconstructed hadrons must have momentum greater than 2.3 GeV/c. We find that, given a /\c- (reconstructed in five different decay modes), a /\c+ is observed in the opposite hemisphere (0.72+/-0.11)% of the time (not corrected for efficiency). By contrast, given a Dbar in one hemisphere, a /\c+ is observed in the opposite hemisphere only (0.21+/-0.02)% of the time. Normalized to the total number of either /\c- or Dbar ``tags'', it is therefore 3.52+/-0.45+/-0.42 times more likely to find a /\c+ opposite a /\c- than a Dbar meson. This enhancement is not observed in the JETSET 7.3 e+e- -> ccbar Monte Carlo simulation.Comment: 19 pages, Latex, one figure separat

First Observation of barB0 to D*0 pi+pi+pi-pi- Decays

We report on the observation of B0bar -> D*0 pi+ pi+ pi- pi- decays. The branching ratio is (0.30 +/- 0.07 +/- 0.06)%. Interest in this particular mode was sparked by Ligeti, Luke and Wise who propose it as a way to check the validity of factorization tests in B0bar -> D*+ pi+ pi- pi- pi0 decays.Comment: 11 pages postscript, also available through http://w4.lns.cornell.edu/public/CLNS, Version to appear in Phys. Rev.

Observation of the Hadronic Transitions Chi_{b 1,2}(2P) -> omega Upsilon(1S)

The CLEO Collaboration has observed the first hadronic transition among bottomonium (b bbar) states other than the dipion transitions among vector states, Upsilon(nS) -> pi pi Upsilon(mS). In our study of Upsilon(3S) decays, we find a significant signal for Upsilon(3S) -> gamma omega Upsilon(1S) that is consistent with radiative decays Upsilon(3S) -> gamma chi_{b 1,2}(2P), followed by chi_{b 1,2} -> omega Upsilon(1S). The branching ratios we obtain are Br(chi_{b1} -> omega Upsilon(1S) = 1.63 (+0.35 -0.31) (+0.16 -0.15) % and Br(chi_{b2} -> omega Upsilon(1S) = 1.10 (+0.32 -0.28) (+0.11 - 0.10)%, in which the first error is statistical and the second is systematic.Comment: submitted to XXI Intern'l Symp on Lepton and Photon Interact'ns at High Energies, August 2003, Fermila

Measurement of \cal{B}(D^+ --> mu^+ nu) and the Pseudoscalar Decay Constant fD+f_{D^+}

In 60 pb-1 of data taken on the psi(3770) resonance with the CLEO-c detector, we find 8 D+ to mu+ nu event candidates that are mostly signal, containing only 1 estimated background. Using this statistically compelling sample, we measure preliminary values of B(D+ to mu+ nu) = (3.5 +- 1.4 +- 0.6)*10^{-4}, and determine f_{D+} =(201+- 41+- 17) MeV.Comment: 17 pages postscript, also available through http://www.lns.cornell.edu/public/CONF/2004/, Presented at ICHEP Aug 16-22,2004, Beijing, Chin